Identification of signaling pathways that specify a subset of migrating enteric neural crest cells at the wavefront in mouse embryos.

During enteric nervous system (ENS) development, pioneering wavefront enteric neural crest cells (ENCCs) initiate gut colonization. However, the molecular mechanisms guiding their specification and niche interaction are not fully understood. We used single-cell RNA sequencing and spatial transcriptomics to map the spatiotemporal dynamics and molecular landscape of wavefront ENCCs in mouse embryos. Our analysis shows a progressive decline in wavefront ENCC potency during migration and identifies transcription factors governing their specification and differentiation. We further delineate key signaling pathways (ephrin-Eph, Wnt-Frizzled, and Sema3a-Nrp1) utilized by wavefront ENCCs to interact with their surrounding cells. Disruptions in these pathways are observed in human Hirschsprung's disease gut tissue, linking them to ENS malformations. Additionally, we observed region-specific and cell-type-specific transcriptional changes in surrounding gut tissues upon wavefront ENCC arrival, suggesting their role in shaping the gut microenvironment. This work offers a roadmap of ENS development, with implications for understanding ENS disorders.

Blood Calcium, Genetic Risk, and Risk of Incident Kidney Stone: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between blood calcium concentration and incident kidney stone as well as to assess the role played by genetic susceptibility. METHODS: We performed a population-based cohort study based on participants from the UK Biobank. A multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs of incident kidney stone for blood calcium level and polygenic risk score (PRS). In addition, the potential interaction was explored. The study was conducted from January 28, 2023, through June 4, 2023. RESULTS: During the follow-up of 423,301 participants with a total of 5,490,332 person-years (median follow-up of 13.4 years), 4502 cases of kidney stone were recorded. Compared with the low blood calcium concentration group (first tertile), individuals in the high (third tertile) and moderate (second tertile) concentration groups had higher risks of kidney stone with HRs of 1.24 (95% CI, 1.15 to 1.33) and 1.11 (1.04 to 1.20), respectively. The PRS for kidney stone contained 40 independent single-nucleotide polymorphisms and was used to assign individuals to 3 groups according to the quintile. Participants with high (Q5) and moderate (Q2 to Q4) genetic risks had increased risks of kidney stone compared with low (Q1) genetic risk with HRs of 1.70 (1.53 to 1.89) and 1.31 (1.20 to 1.44), respectively. There was a joint cumulative risk of incident kidney stone between blood calcium concentration and genetic susceptibility. CONCLUSIONS: Blood calcium concentration and PRS are significantly associated with incident kidney stone risk. Excessive blood calcium concentration might bring additional stone risk in populations at high genetic risk. A nonlinear correlation between blood calcium concentration and kidney stone risk was indicated.

Associations of prior pulmonary tuberculosis with the incident COPD: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Prior pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) might be associated with the development of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). However, the impact of prior PTB on the risk of incident COPD has not been studied in a large prospective cohort study of the European population. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to investigate the association of prior PTB with the risk of COPD. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. METHODS: A multivariable Cox proportional model was used to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) for the association of prior PTB with COPD. Subgroup analyses were further conducted among individuals stratified by age, sex, body mass index, smoking status, drinking status, physical activity, and polygenic risk score (PRS). RESULTS: The study involved a total of 216,130 participants, with a median follow-up period of 12.6 years and 2788 incident cases of COPD. Individuals with a prior history of PTB at baseline had an 87% higher risk of developing incident COPD compared to those without such history [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 1.87; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.26-2.77; p = 0.002]. Subgroup analysis revealed that individuals having prior PTB history presented a higher risk of incident COPD among individuals who were aged from 50 to 59 years with aHR of 2.47 (1.02-5.95, p = 0.044), older than 59 years with aHR of 1.81 (1.16-2.81, p = 0.008), male with aHR of 2.37 (1.47-3.83, p < 0.001), obesity with aHR of 3.35 (2.16-5.82, p < 0.001), previous smoking with aHR of 2.27 (1.39-3.72, p < 0.001), current drinking with aHR of 1.98 (1.47-3.83, p < 0.001), low physical activity with aHR of 2.62 (1.30-5.26, p = 0.007), and low PRS with aHR of 3.24 (1.61-6.53, p < 0.001), as well as high PRS with aHR of 2.43 (1.15-5.14, p = 0.019). CONCLUSION: A history of PTB is an important independent risk factor for COPD. Clinical staff should be aware of this risk factor in patients with prior PTB, particularly in countries or regions with high burdens of PTB.

Associations of prior pulmonary tuberculosis with the incident COPDPrior pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) indicates that an individual has a history of PTB. The impact of prior PTB on the risk of incident chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has not been studied in a large prospective cohort study of European population. Here, we investigated the association between prior PTB and risk of COPD in 216,130 participants from the UK biobank (a large biomedical database). After a median follow up of more than 12 years, 2,788 incident COPD cases were recorded. Individuals with prior PTB at baseline had an 87% higher risk of developing incident COPD compared to those without history of PTB. Specifically, individuals with prior PTB presented with a higher risk of incident COPD among those who were older than 50 years, male, obese, had a previous history of smoking, are currently drinking, have low physical activity, and have a low and high genetic predicted lung function. This study suggested prior PTB as an important and independent risk factor for COPD. Clinical staff should be aware of this risk factor in patients with prior PTB, particularly in countries or regions with high burdens of PTB.

Single cell transcriptome profiling of infrapatellar fat pad highlights the role of interstitial inflammatory fibroblasts in osteoarthritis.

OBJECTIVES: Osteoarthritis (OA) is a whole-joint disease in which the role of the infrapatellar fat pad (IFP) in its pathogenesis is unclear. Our study explored the cellular heterogeneity of IFP to understand OA and identify therapeutic targets. METHODS: Single-cell and single-nuclei RNA sequencing were used to analyze 10 IFP samples, comprising 5 from OA patients and 5 from healthy controls. Analyses included differential gene expression, enrichment, pseudotime trajectory, and cellular communication, along with comparative studies with visceral and subcutaneous fats. Key subcluster and pathways were validated using multiplex immunohistochemistry. RESULTS: The scRNA-seq performed on the IFPs of the OA and control group profiled the gene expressions of over 49,674 cells belonging to 11 major cell types. We discovered that adipose stem and progenitor cells (ASPCs), contributing to the formation of both adipocytes and synovial-lining fibroblasts (SLF). Interstitial inflammatory fibroblasts (iiFBs) were a subcluster of ASPCs that exhibit notable pro-inflammatory and proliferative characteristics. We identified four adipocyte subtypes, with one subtype showing a reduced lipid synthesis ability. Furthermore, iiFBs modulated the activities of macrophages and T cells in the IFP. Compared to subcutaneous and visceral adipose tissues, iiFBs represented a distinctive subpopulation of ASPCs in IFP that regulated cartilage proliferation through the MK pathway. CONCLUSION: This study presents a comprehensive single-cell transcriptomic atlas of IFP, uncovering its complex cellular landscape and potential impact on OA progression. Our findings highlight the role of iiFBs in OA, especially through MK pathway, opening new avenues for understanding OA pathogenesis and developing novel targeted therapies.

Associations of Various Physical Activities with Mortality and Life Expectancy are Mediated by Telomere Length.

OBJECTIVES: Physical activity (PA) and telomeres both contribute to healthy aging and longevity. To investigate the optimal dosage of various PA for longevity and the role of telomere length in PA and mortality. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: A total of 333,865 adults (mean age of 56 years) from the UK Biobank were analyzed. METHODS: Walking, moderate PA (MPA), and vigorous PA (VPA) were self-reported via questionnaire, and leukocyte telomere length (LTL) was measured. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to predict all-cause mortality risk. A flexible parametric Royston-Parmar survival model was used to estimate life expectancy. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 13.8 years, 19,789 deaths were recorded. Compared with the no-walking group, 90 to 720 minutes/week of walking was similarly associated with 27% to 31% of lower mortality and about 6 years of additional life expectancy. We observed nearly major benefits for mortality and life expectancy among those meeting the PA guidelines [151-300 minutes/wk for MPA: hazard ratio (HR) 0.80, 95% CI 0.75-0.85, 3.40-3.42 additional life years; 76-150 minutes/wk for VPA: HR 0.78, 95% CI 0.75-0.82, 2.61 years (2.33-2.89)] vs the no-PA group. Similar benefits were also observed at 76-150 and 301-375 minutes/wk of MPA (18%-19% lower mortality, 3.20-3.42 gained years) or 151-300 minutes/wk of VPA (20%-26% lower mortality, 2.41-2.61 gained years). The associations between MPA, VPA, and mortality risk were slightly mediated by LTL (≈1% mediation proportion, both P < .001). CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: Our study suggests a more flexible range of PA than the current PA guidelines, which could gain similar benefits and is easier to achieve: 90 to 720 minutes/wk of walking, 75 to 375 minutes/wk of MPA, and 75 to 300 minutes/wk of VPA. Telomeres might be a potential mechanism by which PA promotes longevity.

Genetic and observational associations of lung function with gastrointestinal tract diseases: pleiotropic and mendelian randomization analysis.

BACKGROUND: The two-way communications along the gut-lung axis influence the immune function in both gut and lung. However, the shared genetic characteristics of lung function with gastrointestinal tract (GIT) diseases remain to be investigated. METHODS: We first investigated the genetic correlations between three lung function traits and four GIT diseases. Second, we illustrated the genetic overlap by genome-wide pleiotropic analysis (PLACO) and further pinpointed the relevant tissue and cell types by partitioning heritability. Furthermore, we proposed pleiotropic genes as potential drug targets by drug database mining. Finally, we evaluated the causal relationships by epidemiologic observational study and Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis. RESULTS: We found lung function and GIT diseases were genetically correlated. We identified 258 pleiotropic loci, which were enriched in gut- and lung-specific regions marked by H3K4me1. Among these, 16 pleiotropic genes were targets of drugs, such as tofacitinib and baricitinib targeting TYK2 for the treatment of ulcer colitis and COVID-19, respectively. We identified a missense variant in TYK2, exhibiting a shared causal effect on FEV1/FVC and inflammatory bowel disease (rs12720356, PPLACO=1.38 × 10- 8). These findings suggested TYK2 as a promising drug target. Although the epidemiologic observational study suggested the protective role of lung function in the development of GIT diseases, no causalities were found by MR analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggested the shared genetic characteristics between lung function and GIT diseases. The pleiotropic variants could exert their effects by modulating gene expression marked by histone modifications. Finally, we highlighted the potential of pleiotropic analyses in drug repurposing.

Integrative genome-wide analyses identify novel loci associated with kidney stones and provide insights into its genetic architecture.

Kidney stone disease (KSD) is a complex disorder with high heritability and prevalence. We performed a large genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta-analysis for KSD to date, including 720,199 individuals with 17,969 cases in European population. We identified 44 susceptibility loci, including 28 novel loci. Cell type-specific analysis pinpointed the proximal tubule as the most relevant cells where susceptibility variants might act through a tissue-specific fashion. By integrating kidney-specific omics data, we prioritized 223 genes which strengthened the importance of ion homeostasis, including calcium and magnesium in stone formation, and suggested potential target drugs for the treatment. The genitourinary and digestive diseases showed stronger genetic correlations with KSD. In this study, we generate an atlas of candidate genes, tissue and cell types involved in the formation of KSD. In addition, we provide potential drug targets for KSD treatment and insights into shared regulation with other diseases.

Identification of 8 Rare Deleterious Variants in ADAMTS13 by Next-generation Sequencing in a Chinese Population with Thrombotic Thrombocytopenic Purpura.

OBJECTIVE: Thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura (TTP) is a rare and fatal disease caused by a severe deficiency in the metalloprotease ADAMTS13 and is characterized by thrombotic microangiopathy. The present study aimed to investigate the genes and variants associated with TTP in a Chinese population. METHODS: Target sequencing was performed on 220 genes related to complements, coagulation factors, platelets, fibrinolytic, endothelial, inflammatory, and anticoagulation systems in 207 TTP patients and 574 controls. Subsequently, logistic regression analysis was carried out to identify the TTP-associated genes based on the counts of rare deleterious variants in the region of a certain gene. Moreover, the associations between common variants and TTP were also investigated. RESULTS: ADAMTS13 was the only TTP-associated gene (OR = 3.77; 95% CI: 1.82-7.81; P=3.6×10È¡4) containing rare deleterious variants in TTP patients. Among these 8 variants, 5 novel rare variants that might contribute to TTP were identified, including rs200594025, rs782492477, c.T1928G (p.I643S), c.3336_3361del (p.Q1114Afs*20), and c.3469_3470del (p.A1158Sfs*17). No common variants associated with TTP were identified under the stringent criteria of correction for multiple testing. CONCLUSION: ADAMTS13 is the primary gene related to TTP. The genetic variants associated with the occurrence of TTP were slightly different between the Chinese and European populations.

Long-term adverse influence of smoking during pregnancy on height and body size of offspring at ten years old in the UK Biobank cohort.

Background: To explore the long-term relationship between maternal smoking during pregnancy and early childhood growth in the UK Biobank cohort. Methods: To estimate the effect of maternal smoking during pregnancy on offspring height and body size at ten years old, we performed binary logistic analyses and reported odds ratios (OR) as well as 95% confidence intervals (95%CIs). We also implemented the cross-contextual comparison study to examine whether such influence could be repeatedly observed among three different ethnicities in the UK Biobank cohort (n = 22,140 for White, n = 7094 for South Asian, and n = 5000 for Black). In particular, we conducted the sibling cohort study in White sibling cohort (n = 9953 for height and n = 7239 for body size) to control for unmeasured familial confounders. Results: We discovered that children whose mothers smoked during pregnancy had greater risk of being shorter or plumper at age ten in the full UK Biobank White cohort, with 15.3% (95% CIs: 13.0%∼17.7%) higher risk for height and 32.4% (95%CIs: 29.5%∼35.4%) larger risk for body size. Similar associations were identified in the South Asian and Black ethnicities. These associations were robust and remained significant in the White sibling cohort (12.6% [95%CIs: 5.0%∼20.3%] for height and 36.1% [95%CIs: 26.3%∼45.9%] for body size) after controlling for family factors. Conclusion: This study robustly confirms that maternal smoking during pregnancy can promote height deficit and obesity for offspring at ten years old. Our findings strongly encourage mothers to quit smoking during pregnancy for improving growth and development of offspring.

Association of immune cell composition with the risk factors and incidence of acute coronary syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Although immune cells are involved in acute coronary syndrome (ACS), few studies have explored the association of incident ACS with the relative immune cell proportions. We aimed to investigate the association of immune cell proportions with the incidence and risk factors of ACS in the Dongfeng-Tongji cohort. METHODS: We conducted the analyses with 38,295 subjects from the first follow-up of the Dongfeng-Tongji cohort, including DNA methylation profiles for 1570 individuals. The proportions of immune cell types were observed from routine blood tests or estimated from DNA methylation profiles. For both observed and estimated immune cell proportions, we tested their associations with risk factors of ACS by multivariable linear regression models. In addition, the association of each immune cell proportion with incident ACS was assessed by the Cox regression model and conditional logistic regression model, respectively, adjusting for the risk factors of ACS. FINDINGS: The proportions of lymphocytes, monocytes, and neutrophils showed strong associations with sex, followed by diabetes. Moreover, sex and current smoking were the two factors with strongest association with the proportions of lymphocyte subtypes. The hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) of incident ACS per standard deviation (SD) increase in proportions of lymphocytes and neutrophils were 0.91 (0.85-0.96) and 1.10 (1.03-1.16), respectively. Furthermore, the OR (95% CI) of incident ACS per SD increase in proportions of NK cells, CD4+ T cells, and B cells were 0.88 (0.78-0.99), 1.15 (1.03-1.30), and 1.13 (1.00-1.26), respectively. INTERPRETATION: The proportions of immune cells were associated with several risk factors of ACS, including sex, diabetes, and current smoking. In addition, proportion of neutrophils had a risk effect, while proportion of lymphocytes had a protective effect on the incidence of ACS. The protective effect of lymphocytes was probably driven by NK cells.

Feasible intervention combinations for achieving a safe exit of the Zero-COVID policy in China and its determinants: an individual-based model study.

BACKGROUND: Although several pathways have been proposed as the prerequisite for a safe phase-out in China, it is not clear which of them are the most important for keeping the mortality rate low, what thresholds should be achieved for these most important interventions, and how the thresholds change with the assumed key epidemiological parameters and population characteristics. METHODS: We developed an individual-based model (IBM) to simulate the transmission of the Omicron variant in the synthetic population, accounting for the age-dependent probabilities of severe clinical outcomes, waning vaccine-induced immunity, increased mortality rates when hospitals are overburdened, and reduced transmission when self-isolated at home after testing positive. We applied machine learning algorithms on the simulation outputs to examine the importance of each intervention parameter and the feasible intervention parameter combinations for safe exits, which is defined as having mortality rates lower than that of influenza in China (14.3 per 100, 000 persons). RESULTS: We identified vaccine coverage in those above 70 years old, number of ICU beds per capita, and the availability of antiviral treatment as the most important interventions for safe exits across all studied locations, although the thresholds required for safe exits vary remarkably with the assumed vaccine effectiveness, as well as the age structure, age-specific vaccine coverage, community healthcare capacity of the studied locations. CONCLUSIONS: The analytical framework developed here can provide the basis for further policy decisions that incorporate considerations about economic costs and societal impacts. Achieving safe exits from the Zero-COVID policy is possible, but challenging for China's cities. When planning for safe exits, local realities such as the age structure and current age-specific vaccine coverage must be taken into consideration.

Investigating the shared genetic architecture and causal relationship between pain and neuropsychiatric disorders.

Pain often occurs in parallel with neuropsychiatric disorders. However, the underlying mechanisms and potential causality have not been well studied. We collected the genome-wide association study (GWAS) summary statistics of 26 common pain and neuropsychiatric disorders with sample size ranging from 17,310 to 482,730 in European population. The genetic correlation between pair of pain and neuropsychiatric disorders, as well as the relevant cell types were investigated by linkage disequilibrium (LD) score regression analyses. Then, transcriptome-wide association study (TWAS) was applied to identify the potential shared genes by integrating the gene expression information and GWAS. In addition, Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses were conducted to infer the potential causality between pain and neuropsychiatric disorders. Among the 169 pairwise pain and neuropsychiatric disorders, 55 pairs showed positive correlations (median rg = 0.43) and 9 pairs showed negative correlations (median rg = -0.31). Using MR analyses, 26 likely causal associations were identified, including that neuroticism and insomnia were risk factors for most of short-term pain, and multisite chronic pain was risk factor for neuroticism, insomnia, major depressive disorder and attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder, and vice versa. The signals of pain and neuropsychiatric disorders tended to be enriched in the functional regions of cell types from central nervous system (CNS). A total of 19 genes shared in at least one pain and neuropsychiatric disorder pair were identified by TWAS, including AMT, NCOA6, and UNC45A, which involved in glycine degradation, insulin secretion, and cell proliferation, respectively. Our findings provided the evidence of shared genetic structure, causality and potential shared pathogenic mechanisms between pain and neuropsychiatric disorders, and enhanced our understanding of the comorbidities of pain and neuropsychiatric disorders.

Decoding the spatial chromatin organization and dynamic epigenetic landscapes of macrophage cells during differentiation and immune activation.

Immunocytes dynamically reprogram their gene expression profiles during differentiation and immunoresponse. However, the underlying mechanism remains elusive. Here, we develop a single-cell Hi-C method and systematically delineate the 3D genome and dynamic epigenetic atlas of macrophages during these processes. We propose "degree of disorder" to measure genome organizational patterns inside topologically-associated domains, which is correlated with the chromatin epigenetic states, gene expression, and chromatin structure variability in individual cells. Furthermore, we identify that NF-κB initiates systematic chromatin conformation reorganization upon Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection. The integrated Hi-C, eQTL, and GWAS analysis depicts the atlas of the long-range target genes of mycobacterial disease susceptible loci. Among these, the SNP rs1873613 is located in the anchor of a dynamic chromatin loop with LRRK2, whose inhibitor AdoCbl could be an anti-tuberculosis drug candidate. Our study provides comprehensive resources for the 3D genome structure of immunocytes and sheds insights into the order of genome organization and the coordinated gene transcription during immunoresponse.

An Integrative Genomic Prediction Approach for Predicting Buffalo Milk Traits by Incorporating Related Cattle QTLs.

Background: The 90K Axiom Buffalo SNP Array is expected to improve and speed up various genomic analyses for the buffalo (Bubalus bubalis). Genomic prediction is an effective approach in animal breeding to improve selection and reduce costs. As buffalo genome research is lagging behind that of the cow and production records are also limited, genomic prediction performance will be relatively poor. To improve the genomic prediction in buffalo, we introduced a new approach (pGBLUP) for genomic prediction of six buffalo milk traits by incorporating QTL information from the cattle milk traits in order to help improve the prediction performance for buffalo. Results: In simulations, the pGBLUP could outperform BayesR and the GBLUP if the prior biological information (i.e., the known causal loci) was appropriate; otherwise, it performed slightly worse than BayesR and equal to or better than the GBLUP. In real data, the heritability of the buffalo genomic region corresponding to the cattle milk trait QTLs was enriched (fold of enrichment > 1) in four buffalo milk traits (FY270, MY270, PY270, and PM) when the EBV was used as the response variable. The DEBV as the response variable yielded more reliable genomic predictions than the traditional EBV, as has been shown by previous research. The performance of the three approaches (GBLUP, BayesR, and pGBLUP) did not vary greatly in this study, probably due to the limited sample size, incomplete prior biological information, and less artificial selection in buffalo. Conclusions: To our knowledge, this study is the first to apply genomic prediction to buffalo by incorporating prior biological information. The genomic prediction of buffalo traits can be further improved with a larger sample size, higher-density SNP chips, and more precise prior biological information.

Predictive Risk Factors at Admission and a "Burning Point" During Hospitalization Serve as Sequential Alerts for Critical Illness in Patients With COVID-19.

Background: We intended to establish a novel critical illness prediction system combining baseline risk factors with dynamic laboratory tests for patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Methods: We evaluated patients with COVID-19 admitted to Wuhan West Union Hospital between 12 January and 25 February 2020. The data of patients were collected, and the illness severity was assessed. Results: Among 1,150 enrolled patients, 296 (25.7%) patients developed into critical illness. A baseline nomogram model consists of seven variables including age [odds ratio (OR), 1.028; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.004-1.052], sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score (OR, 4.367; 95% CI, 3.230-5.903), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR; OR, 1.094; 95% CI, 1.024-1.168), D-dimer (OR, 1.476; 95% CI, 1.107-1.968), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH; OR, 1.004; 95% CI, 1.001-1.006), international normalised ratio (INR; OR, 1.027; 95% CI, 0.999-1.055), and pneumonia area interpreted from computed tomography (CT) images (medium vs. small [OR, 4.358; 95% CI, 2.188-8.678], and large vs. small [OR, 9.567; 95% CI, 3.982-22.986]) were established to predict the risk for critical illness at admission. The differentiating power of this nomogram scoring system was perfect with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.960 (95% CI, 0.941-0.972) in the training set and an AUC of 0.958 (95% CI, 0.936-0.980) in the testing set. In addition, a linear mixed model (LMM) based on dynamic change of seven variables consisting of SOFA score (value, 2; increase per day [I/d], +0.49), NLR (value, 10.61; I/d, +2.07), C-reactive protein (CRP; value, 46.9 mg/L; I/d, +4.95), glucose (value, 7.83 mmol/L; I/d, +0.2), D-dimer (value, 6.08 µg/L; I/d, +0.28), LDH (value, 461 U/L; I/d, +13.95), and blood urea nitrogen (BUN value, 6.51 mmol/L; I/d, +0.55) were established to assist in predicting occurrence time of critical illness onset during hospitalization. Conclusion: The two-checkpoint system could assist in accurately and dynamically predicting critical illness and timely adjusting the treatment regimen for patients with COVID-19.

Propagation dynamics and control policies of COVID-19 pandemic at early stages: Implications on future resurgence response.

The spreading of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has gravely impacted the world in the last year and a half. Understanding the spatial and temporal patterns of how it spreads at the early stage and the effectiveness of a governments' immediate response helps our society prepare for future COVID-19 waves or the next pandemic and contain it before the spreading gets out of control. In this article, a susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed model is used to model the city-to-city spreading patterns of the disease at the early stage of its emergence in China (from December 2019 to February 2020). Publicly available reported case numbers in 312 Chinese cities and between-city mobility data are leveraged to estimate key epidemiological characteristics, such as the transmission rate and the number of infectious people for each city. It is discovered that during any given time period, there are always only a few cities that are responsible for spreading the disease to other cities. We term these few cities as transmission centers. The spatial and temporal changes in transmission centers demonstrate predictable patterns. Moreover, rigorously designed experiments show that in controlling the disease spread in a city, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) implemented at transmission centers are more effective than the NPI implemented in the city itself. These findings have implications on the control of an infectious disease at the early stage of its spreading: implementing NPIs at transmission centers at early stages is effective in controlling the spread of infectious diseases.

Mendelian randomization analysis of 37 clinical factors and coronary artery disease in East Asian and European populations.

BACKGROUND: Coronary artery disease (CAD) remains the leading cause of mortality worldwide despite enormous efforts devoted to its prevention and treatment. While many genetic loci have been identified to associate with CAD, the intermediate causal risk factors and etiology have not been fully understood. This study assesses the causal effects of 37 heritable clinical factors on CAD in East Asian and European populations. METHODS: We collected genome-wide association summary statistics of 37 clinical factors from the Biobank Japan (42,793 to 191,764 participants) and the UK Biobank (314,658 to 442,817 participants), paired with summary statistics of CAD from East Asians (29,319 cases and 183,134 controls) and Europeans (91,753 cases and 311,344 controls). These clinical factors covered 12 cardiometabolic traits, 13 hematological indices, 7 hepatological and 3 renal function indices, and 2 serum electrolyte indices. We performed univariable and multivariable Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses in East Asians and Europeans separately, followed by meta-analysis. RESULTS: Univariable MR analyses identified reliable causal evidence (P < 0.05/37) of 10 cardiometabolic traits (height, body mass index [BMI], blood pressure, glycemic and lipid traits) and 4 other clinical factors related to red blood cells (red blood cell count [RBC], hemoglobin, hematocrit) and uric acid (UA). Interestingly, while generally consistent, we identified population heterogeneity in the causal effects of BMI and UA, with higher effect sizes in East Asians than those in Europeans. After adjusting for cardiometabolic factors in multivariable MR analysis, red blood cell traits (RBC, meta-analysis odds ratio 1.07 per standard deviation increase, 95% confidence interval 1.02-1.13; hemoglobin, 1.10, 1.03-1.16; hematocrit, 1.10, 1.04-1.17) remained significant (P < 0.05), while UA showed an independent causal effect in East Asians only (1.12, 1.06-1.19, P = 3.26×10-5). CONCLUSIONS: We confirmed the causal effects of 10 cardiometabolic traits on CAD and identified causal risk effects of RBC, hemoglobin, hematocrit, and UA independent of traditional cardiometabolic factors. We found no causal effects for 23 clinical factors, despite their reported epidemiological associations. Our findings suggest the physiology of red blood cells and the level of UA as potential intervention targets for the prevention of CAD.

Causal Graph Among Serum Lipids and Glycemic Traits: A Mendelian Randomization Study.

We systematically investigated the bidirectional causality among HDL cholesterol (HDL-C), LDL cholesterol (LDL-C), triglycerides (TGs), fasting insulin (FI), and glycated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) based on genome-wide association summary statistics of Europeans (n = 1,320,016 for lipids, 151,013 for FI, and 344,182 for HbA1c). We applied multivariable Mendelian randomization (MR) to account for the correlation among different traits and constructed a causal graph with 13 significant causal effects after adjusting for multiple testing (P < 0.0025). Remarkably, we found that the effects of lipids on glycemic traits were through FI from TGs (ß = 0.06 [95% CI 0.03, 0.08] in units of 1 SD for each trait) and HDL-C (ß = -0.02 [-0.03, -0.01]). On the other hand, FI had a strong negative effect on HDL-C (ß = -0.15 [-0.21, -0.09]) and positive effects on TGs (ß = 0.22 [0.14, 0.31]) and HbA1c (ß = 0.15 [0.12, 0.19]), while HbA1c could raise LDL-C (ß = 0.06 [0.03, 0.08]) and TGs (ß = 0.08 [0.06, 0.10]). These estimates derived from inverse-variance weighting were robust when using different MR methods. Our results suggest that elevated FI was a strong causal factor of high TGs and low HDL-C, which in turn would further increase FI. Therefore, early control of insulin resistance is critical to reduce the risk of type 2 diabetes, dyslipidemia, and cardiovascular complications.

Longitudinal relationships of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons exposure and genetic susceptibility with blood lipid profiles.

OBJECTIVE: We aim to analyze the effects of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) exposure and genetic predisposition on blood lipid through a longitudinal epidemiological study. METHODS: We enrolled 4,356 observations who participated at baseline (n = 2,435) and 6-year follow-up (n = 1,921) from Wuhan-Zhuhai cohort. Ten urinary PAHs metabolites and blood lipid (i.e., total cholesterol [TC], triglycerides [TG], low-density lipoprotein cholesterol [LDL-C], and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol [HDL-C]) were measured at both baseline and follow-up. The polygenic risk scores (PRS) of blood lipid were constructed by the corresponding genome-wide association studies. Linear mixed models were fit to identify associations between urinary PAHs metabolites, blood lipid, and lipid-PRSs in the repeated-measure analysis. Besides, longitudinal relationships of blood lipid with urinary PAHs metabolites and respective lipid-PRSs were examined by using linear regression models. RESULTS: Compared with subjects who had persistently low urinary total hydroxyphenanthrene (ΣOHPh), those with persistently high levels had an average increase of 0.137 mmol/l for TC and 0.129 mmol/l for LDL-C over 6 years. Each 1-unit increase of TC-, TG-, LDL-C-, and HDL-C-specific PRS were associated with an average increase of 0.438 mmol/l for TC, 0.264 mmol/l for TG, 0.198 mmol/l for LDL-C, and 0.043 mmol/l for HDL-C over 6 years, respectively. Compared with subjects who had low genetic risk and persistently low ΣOHPh, subjects with high LDL-specific PRS and persistently high ΣOHPh had an average increase of 0.652 mmol/l for LDL-C. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that high-level ΣOHPh exposure is associated with an average increase of LDL-C over 6 years, and those relationships can be aggravated by a higher LDL-C-genetic risk. No significant relationships were observed between other PAHs metabolites (including hydroxynaphthalene, hydroxyfluorene, and hydroxypyrene) and blood lipid changes over 6 years. Our findings emphasize the importance of preventing PAHs exposure, particularly among those with a higher genetic predisposition of hyperlipidemia.

Incubation period of coronavirus disease 2019: new implications for intervention and control.

The COVID-19 pandemic has been causing serious disasters to mankind. The incubation period is a key parameter for epidemic control and also an important basis for epidemic prediction, but its distribution law remains unclear. This paper analyzed the epidemiological information of 787 confirmed non-Wuhan resident cases, and systematically studied the characteristics of the incubation period of COVID-19 based on the interval-censored data estimation method. The results show that the incubation period of COVID-19 approximately conforms to the Gamma distribution with a mean value of 7.8 (95%CI:7.4-8.5) days and a median value of 7.0 (95%CI:6.7-7.3) days. The incubation period was positively correlated with age and negatively correlated with disease severity. Female cases presented a slightly higher incubation period than that of males. The proportion of infected persons who developed symptoms within 14 days was 91.6%. These results are of great significance to the prevention and control of the COVID-19 pandemic.